Thursday, October 13, 2005

Escape Velocity

I’m sitting here this morning reading Pauly’s and Otis’ recap of their Pokerstars media event coverage on Tuesday night.  It’s not with a little bit of envy that I think about their profession of choice and the personal freedoms it brings.  Certainly, I know the old adage about the grass always being greener, but rarely has my life inside the cubicle been more mundane.  Not that I could be a writer, nor anything but the engineer I am for that matter; but I can’t help but wish away the 8 to 6 chain that encircles the majority of my waking hours and tightens with each passing day.

Is there an escape?  Not likely.  If the poker phenomenon had occurred ten or twelve years earlier in my life, perhaps I’d have taken some risks.  At the bare minimum, packing up and moving closer to the Mecca and becoming a dealer would have been one possibility.  Having a family to support however makes taking such chances more than foolhardy.  There’s always that miniscule chance that I’ll win the PowerBall lottery, but I’m more likely to be struck by lightning twice after being hit by a meteor.  Still, I play.

And I play poker too.  I’ll actually admit to the world (read:  tens of loyal readers) that there have been times that I thought I could eventually win enough money on a consistent basis to consider doing it full time.  Yeah, that’s right, I said it.  Or more like I typed it.  Anyone who has played and had some level of success has thought the same thing.  Maybe not for long, or not very seriously, but admit it – the thought of playing a game for a living has bounced around your brain at least once.

The sad part, for me at least, is that I’m stubborn, disciplined, and possess a general dislike for having to work with other people who aren’t very much like me.  Yes, my workplace has donkeys precisely like those at the poker table.  Unfortunately, just like the odds of hitting a 200 million dollar jackpot, my odds of becoming a “professional” are astronomical.  The only thing working in my favor is time.

Time and dedication.  Here is some more honesty for you.  I’ve been hitting the gym regularly for about 15 years now.  I’ve never taken any form of the juice, the cream or the clear.  In fact, I’m not really even that big considering how often I lift.  I’ve been at or near the same bodyweight for about 10 years.  Talk about a plateau.  So why do I still workout?  Because I’m stubborn.  As each year passes, it gets more and more difficult to even maintain what I’ve built.  Even if I’ve made any gains, they come about so slowly as to not even be noticeable.  But I continue to plod away, driven by some internal, misguided view of myself that eventually something better will come of it.  That’s either discipline or evidence that my skull is made of Neptunium, I’m not sure which.

Therein too lies my plan for poker.  Plod away.  Make gains that may not be noticeable, but when accumulated over a long enough time period, will indeed manifest themselves.  I had my best winning year last year.  Certainly to many, the sum was paltry, but it was more than I thought I could ever win.  Earlier this year, I was on pace to double last year’s win.  When that was happening, I just figured that doubling my profits each year was the ticket out.  In 5 years of doubling up, I’d be able to overtake my current salary and then the sky was the limit.

Well that didn’t happen.  I know; you’re all shocked, dismayed, chagrined even.  In the months of May through early August, I got crushed.  Doubling up seemed to be such a moronic idea.  Still, I remained profitable for the year, but I put aside that 5-year plan as a pipe dream and plodded on.  Perhaps slow and steady can win the race, but the race I was in was going to be some ultra-marathon.

So I continue to plod.

Back to where I began, here I sit pondering other things.  As soon as I figure out what they are, I’ll let you know.

Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Reading is Fundamental

Every now and then, I’ll post my thoughts on a particular hand I played during the past week.  Pretty much without fail, these discussions have made me look smarter than I really am.  In order to give equal time to both sides, I present to you a hand I played last week that sheds light on my ability to lose my entire stack all at once.

Where:  Full Tilt (thanks Hank for not removing the destroyBadBloodsBankroll boolean – do I need to get Bill and Chris involved here????), $50 NLHE, 6-handed ring game.

Why:  Because I stink.

The environment at the table has seen me raise with some premium hands and take down pots with post flop continuation bets.  I truly had hands, but nobody got to see them.  At this point, I am fully aware of what my table image is based on those circumstances.

UTG I get dealt the Hiltons, QQ for those not reading poker bloggers for the past two years.  I raise and get called by LP and the BB.  The flop is all undercards, 742 rainbow.  The BB bets out a pot-sized bet and I call.  My current thoughts are that the BB feels that the flop missed me, which it certainly could have had I been playing AK,AQ, etc.  Without much board coordination, I wasn’t concerned with the BB’s hand.

Consider my surprise when LP raises 3x the BB’s bet.

Here’s my super-scientific, world class player, might-as-well-have-ESP read on that move:  LP thinks that the BB’s bet is a stab at a harmless looking flop that must have missed me.  He raises thinking that the BB will fold because he truly doesn’t have a hand and that I will fold because the flop missed me too.

As predicted by both me and the LP player, the BB does indeed fold, which brings the action back around to me.

Since my read on the BB was so flawless, I figured my read on the LP player was also without fault.  So I pushed.

LP had me covered easily and insta-called.  With his set of 4’s.  Oops.

Good thing the turn brought the case 4 giving him quads because I would have had two outs on the river with which to suckout.

I console myself after these moves by saying, “At least I went with my read….”

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Zone of Terror

Recall that Friends episode with Monica’s boyfriend Pete who had just got his ass whipped in an Ultimate fighting competition?  Pete is standing there with both arms in a cast and oblivious to his lack of skill says, “See this circle I'm marking off here? This is my zone of terror.”

Last night I was taken to someone else’s zone of terror.

To be fair, it really wasn’t a zone of terror.  It was, however, a visit outside my zone of comfort, which for all intents and purposes might as well be a zone of terror.

****

Whenever my cell phone rings on a weekday, I know I’m in for trouble.  Last night as I was putting the mini’s to bed, I heard it’s familiar ring and bolted downstairs to answer it.  The caller id said “The Mark” and I knew what was coming.

“You up for a game tonight?”

Generally I don’t like to press my luck with playing “unscheduled” poker.  Mrs_Blood is more than generous with my time out of the house pursuing unattainable bankroll goals and since I know that overextending myself in this regard is very, very –EV, I try to pick my spots.

I received one of those telltale “You can go’s.”  It the kind where you know that you’re on the borderline of having to watch a chick flick on the weekend in order to make up for going out on a Monday.  Still, I took the bait and told her I’d be back by midnight.

****

The game would be played at The Rick’s – brother of The Mark.  As I was driving to the game, I got a phone call from G-Rob wondering why I didn’t alert him to the game.  I had incorrectly assumed that The Mark had called him too.  No matter, G-Rob forgave my oversight and arranged for his attendance.

As I pulled into the driveway, I knew right away that I was in for something different.  Rather than the normal assortment of Hondas, Toyotas and Minivans, I parked my 1997 beater next to a shiny Mercedes which just so happened to be parked next to an equally as shiny Jaguar.  I’m sure I was devaluing their vehicles simply by being in the same parking lot.

Gulp.

****

I was hoping it would be reminiscent of that scene in Rounders when Mike and Worm take big cash from the rich kids.  Not that G-Rob and I are sharks, but I felt that both of us stood a good chance of taking home some serious cash if the players were a bit loose with their play.

The game was dealer’s choice – Hold ‘em, Omaha, Omaha Hi/Lo – all for no limit stakes.  The blinds were $2/4 with a buy-in of $200.  Like I said, out of my comfort zone.

The poker room atop The Rick’s garage was unbelievable - by far the best I’d ever played in.  Custom ChipCo poker chips adorned the racetrack poker table.  If the 50+” HDTV next to the wall wasn’t enough, a smaller TV located above the bar on the other side of the room was available.  Monday Night Football on one, post-season baseball on the other.

****

As I sat there and played cautiously, G-Rob noted that he’d read somewhere that the buy-in to the game shouldn’t matter – you should just play your own game.  Very true, but very hard to do.

I had missed a few flops early and dropped about one third of my buy-in.  Secretly I wondered how I’d be perceived if I left after dropping “only” one buy-in – the equivalent of four at my normal game.  I didn’t want to be one of those guys obviously in over his head forced to leave with his tail between his legs.  I don’t like being that guy.

****

Luckily, I found a few hands and managed to win my way to over double my buy-in.  Unfortunately, it wouldn’t last.  The nature of the Omaha beast did me in.  On three occasions, I had the nuts on the turn.  As Omaha experts know, when you have the nuts with no redraws, you can get into trouble.  On each of those three occasions, the river brought an opponent a better hand than mine.

All was not lost, however, and as midnight rolled around I was able to cash out a modest winner.  It’s not the results that I was pleased about, it was the transitioning of zones.  Most assuredly, I was out of my normal comfort zone.  As The Mark would say to me as a big Omaha pot got scooped by his brother, “Welcome to my world.”  It was quite a welcoming, but one I’m glad I endured.

My attempts to move up in limits online has met with failure thus far.  Since the days of Brad-o-ween, I’ve managed to build up the live bankroll to a point where I think I can sit down at this game and eventually be comfortable.  One thing is for sure, leaving your own comfort zone is a sure way to bring the excitement back into your game.

Monday, October 10, 2005

Hey, I Have An MBA

The big news in the online poker world is Party decoupling their skins from their main base of players.  Otis and Bill Rini have posted about it already, with Otis having a potentially nightmarish situation on his hands.  Hopefully things will work out for him; I anticipate they will.

We can all exercise some caution about our online poker site choices.  One of the things I’ve told some co-workers whenever we’d talk about online poker is that I would try not to keep so much money on an online site that I couldn’t live without it should things disappear overnight.  Whenever my balance at one particular site crosses that threshold of “more than I’d feel comfortable losing,” I make a cashout.  I think most of us have Neteller accounts and holding a balance there may be more secure.  Certainly that’s debatable, however at this point, having money at Neteller is not illegal.  But because deposits from Neteller are near instantaneous, it doesn’t limit what I can do with my money, since reloading any poker site is quite easy.

The online poker “industry” is certainly approaching commodity level in a business sense very quickly.  There aren’t too many barriers to entry.  Most of the poker client and server software can be licensed and with a few hundred thousand dollar investment, some bandwidth and some customer support monkeys, launching an online poker site has never been easier.  (I say “easy,” but obviously it’s not, just easier in a relative sense than it was three years ago.)  Just take a peek in any recent CardPlayer magazine.  How many adds for poker sites are there now?  Twenty?  More?

From my perspective, the biggest asset any poker site has is their player base.  When there were only a few sites to choose from, maintaining a reliable player base was much easier.  Now, however, it’s no longer the case.  I don’t know for sure how many sites can be profitably supported by the current player base.  It may be less than what’s currently out there, which means that we will see some consolidation (Empire/Noble) and some companies that will go completely out of business.  That is most certainly a real risk we face.

As Otis mentions (as well as is stated on their print media ads), Pokerstars entrusts their player’s money with a third party.  Their player base is also quite large.  Those two items alone make Pokerstars an attractive site at which to play.  Please note that I am not affiliated with them, it is just an objective recommendation.

I also have some money at Full Tilt.  Their site has some additional games (read Razz) that I like to play and some nice promotions centered around playing with recognizable professionals.  I do not know how their player money is managed however; perhaps some of the other bloggers that work there can enlighten us.

Regardless of where you play, just remember to play it safe.  Things happen very quickly on the intarweb and it’s not totally unreasonable to believe you could lose your entire online bankroll in the blink of a bit.

Thursday, October 6, 2005

Hand. Of. The. Week.

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I get a kick out of Oddjack’s babelfish conversions of hand history text.  So in that light, I have some hand analysis for them to send through their scrambler.

It’s a 50NL table on FullTilt, 6-handed.  I’m dealt pocket 8’s, da snowmen, in MP and call the BB.  An LP player with a stack roughly equal to mine raises to $2.50 and it’s folded around back to me.  Obviously I’m not getting pot-odds to call, but as the freshly-back-from-Aruba DoubleAs says, sets are gold.  I call.

The flop comes QQ5 rainbow and I check.  From my position, whether I have a Q or not, a check doesn’t give anything away about my hand.  Right now, all my opponent knows about my hand is that I limp-called his raise.

LP bets out a pot-sized bet of $6.  Now from my perspective, I know he pre-flop raised, but if he’s holding a Q, he’s sure as hell not betting here.  His bet screams out to me “I don’t have a Q!!”

Based on the bet, I put him on overcards and check-raise to $12 surely expecting him to fold right now.  He doesn’t.  He comes over-the-top all in for $33 more.  Now what do I do?  Fold?

The all-in does represent something here, but what that is may be difficult to say.  I did consider folding for a second, but I remembered something else:  a previous hand.  In that previous hand, the same player was able to push me off a hand when I held just top pair.  In fact, he overbet the pot in a huge way.  He may be thinking he can do the same thing on this hand.

I wasn’t 100% sure I was good, but with the combination of all the evidence, I felt a call was in order.  So I did.

He showed 57s and didn’t improve.  I IM’d G-Rob immediately to tell him what a rockstar I was.

****

To address a couple of comments from the previous post:

To Chris:  Thanks for stopping by and the kind words.  I’m thinking of doing the same here in G-Vegas, a HU tourney as part of the BadBlood series of tournaments.

To Gamecock:  Dude, when you coming back to the homegames???

To SparkyR:  I don’t consider myself in the same league as the “journalists”, but thank you for saying.

To EasyCure:  I think a “good” ratio is one where you are at least profitable, so based on a 5% juice, you’d need to have a winning percentage of better than 52.5% to break even.  A “great” ratio?  I think anything over 65% would be amazing, that’s nearly equivalent to winning 2 out of every 3 HU matches.  I would only consider sample sizes in the hundreds however, anything less is not enough.  And yes, the GUNZ are doing fine.  I’m flexing right now.  Shazam!

To Trip-Jax:  That HU challenge sounds interesting, I’ll keep an eye out for the next competition.

Wednesday, October 5, 2005

Not Tails Down

I’m becoming a big fan of these HeadsUp (HU) SNG’s lately.  Perhaps my success ratio in an admittedly small sample size is contributing to my enthusiasm; nonetheless, I am enjoying these small bursts of intense poker.

I haven’t really read much strategy with the exception of the HU section in Harrington on Hold ‘em Volume 2.  Harrington’s dissection of the HU play between Ivey and D’Agostino is worth the price of the book alone.

This blog entry is just a mish-mash of thoughts that have sprouted during the last few days.  Some of it may be considered strategy, but I’m not so foolish to think that I’m any kind of expert yet, so feel free to expand/critique/denounce.

****

During HU play, I believe that each hand represents an opportunity to shape and mold the texture of the play.  Here’s where attempting to model the psychology of your opponent becomes a factor.  For example, in the early stages of the game, each player is feeling each other out like two boxers throwing a few jabs here and there in Round 1.  It is during this time when you can see if your opponent is passive or aggressive.  One sure sign of passive play is folding the SB preflop.  Once I see my opponent do that, I begin to think I may be able to push him off pots later.

Again, in the early stages, there’s simply no need to fall in love with a hand.  Smart opponents will make you pay a heavy price for chasing your draw.  Pay very close attention to pot odds.  You may think to yourself that if you catch your draw that you can bust your opponent early.  Don’t fall into this trap, HU play success is dependent on several winning decisions, not just one.

Thus far, I’ve been having a 50/50 success ratio in picking off bluffs vs. calling my opponent down who has a hand.  Recognizing the bluffs among the value bets is very important.  The tendency to raise in HU play is more often dictated by the play in previous hands rather than actual hand strength, so putting your opponent on an actual hand can be more difficult.  You also have to remember the times you got called down bluffing.  Your opponent will be more likely to pay you off if he’s picked off one of your bluffs.

Changing gears is also a very effective strategy.  Every now and then, slowplaying a monster hand is deceptive enough to win you a big pot.  The same holds true for an aggressive re-raise on a scary board after you’ve been forced to fold several hands in a row.

I’ve found that once the momentum swings in your direction, you have to take advantage of it and push your opponent hard.  Only when he feels he’s backed into a corner and forced to push back should you hesitate.  From my experience, the turning point when this behavior becomes effective is just when you gain a 2-1 chip advantage.

****

Over at the Talking Poker forum, there’s a HU tournament that I’ll be playing in more for bragging rights than anything else.  After this week’s foray into this type of play, I’m really looking forward to it.

Monday, October 3, 2005

Weekend Recap

Friday:

I had a chance to play some live poker at The Mark, but had to stay in and catch up on some things.  Translation:  I stayed up way too late on Thursday and needed to make a long-term +EV decision with respect to marital bliss.  That still didn’t prevent me from donking off $100+ online.  Bah!

Saturday:

The mini’s had friends over, so I did much of nothing.  Played some more online, which I’m sure you’re all FASCINATED to find out how I did.  Again, donked off $100 again, this time at the $3/6 Stud8 game on Pokerstars.  Gugh.  (Aside: for those of you tired of the word “donk” or “donkey”, too freakin’ bad.  I still find it hilarious to say AND type.  Donk-da-da-donk, donk.  Donk donk.)

Saturday did turn around as it was Mrs_Blood’s grandmother’s turn to buy dinner.  We alternate who pays, making it easy on everyone so there’s never any awkward moment when the bill comes.  We went to the Outback where I immediately began to get my drink on.  A couple of BadBloody Mary’s followed by some tall Fosters with dinner was enough to get me going.

(Another aside (Sappy as sappy gets):  As I was sitting there at dinner with the Mrs and the kids, I realized that there is not a man alive luckier than I.  There’s that old adage that you never know what you got ‘til it’s gone – apologies to Tom Kiefer – but in my case, I know what I have and I appreciate it more than anything.  A few brews in me and I’m either off to a strip club or getting all maudlin about my family.  I embody the dichotomy of man in all it’s nonsensical glory.)

After dinner, it was off to The Marks.  Traveling to a live poker game where you can bring your wife and kids is about as ideal as ideal gets.  Our kids travel well and sleep anywhere, so it’s not ever a problem to bring them by The Marks so their degenerate parents can play poker.  Thanks to pokerbtch having recently started a blog, you can read about the exploits there.  My results:  -$40 in the tournament – predictable, +$158 NLHE side games.  Thanks again to G-Rob for paying me off on the trip 7’s. ;)

We got a little punchy by the end of the night, which was actually early Sunday morning.  G-Rob had me cracking up over and over with his naming convention for donkeys playing any two cards.  Bitch Suckleton.  Probably one of those “have to be there” things, but I’m still LOL’ing.

Sunday:

Another lazy day around the house.  I watched the Patriots game in all its high definition misery.  I’m not sure how good or bad they are yet this year, but one thing is for sure, the Chargers are for real.

More online mayhem saw me win about $30 at the NLHE ring games.  Then I did something I’ve never done before.  If you’re an action junkie who likes to play EVERY hand, then these games are for you:  Headsup SNG’s.

I played three $30+1.50 on Full Tilt.  Results were great, I went 3-0.  The first and the third were solid dismantlings of my opponents.  After reading Harrington’s headsup section in volume 2, I felt I was a bit better prepared for these things than your average player.  I saw many players fold pre-flop on the button with the small blind.  According to Harrington, that’s a huge mistake.  There were a couple of times I flopped two-pair with junk.

The second session was a knock down, drag out event.  I picked off a bluff early and took a 1800-1200 lead.  My opponent rallied a bit until the hand where we both flopped a flush.  His was higher and I found myself outchipped 2850 to 150.

I don’t know about you, but if I have that kind of an advantage, I’m putting my opponent all-in every hand until they get back to over 1000 in chips.  The odds of not getting sucked out on even when you’re behind have got to be good enough in a cumulative sense that this has to be the proper strategy.

My opponent chose another path.  He folded to many of my all-ins and after one suckout on the river, I managed to find myself with the chip lead.  We got it all-in when I had AJ and he had K9d suited on a 667 two-diamond flop.  He missed all his draws and I won.

Those headsup matches are great.  You have to focus COMPLETELY at all times.  There is no period of fold, fold, fold where you find yourself tooling the Intarweb for decent porn waiting for a hand to play.

And that’s where I leave you on this Monday morning, 16 days away from my solo trip to Vegas.
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